Thursday, October 04, 2007
[RealEdge] BT : Hostile end to Horizon Towers hearing
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Oct 4, 2007 | |
Hostile end to Horizon Towers hearing | |
By Fiona Chan | |
TENSIONS ran high at the already prickly Horizon Towers hearing yesterday, as lawyers fought over who would have the last word. The heated exchanges lasted less than an hour but they were more hostile than any of the previous day-long sessions since last Friday. They brought to a close the appeal over the estate's bungled collective sale - an appeal peppered by barbed comments between highly paid lawyers and regular jeers and boos from the public gallery. The only lawyer scheduled to speak yesterday was Senior Counsel Chelva Rajah of Tan, Rajah and Cheah. He represents the condominium's majority owners, who have asked the High Court to overturn the Strata Titles Board's (STB's) dismissal of their collective sale application in August. Mr Rajah was to reply to arguments made by the minority owners' lawyers on Tuesday. The minority owners want the STB decision upheld. But even before he could speak, Senior Counsel K.Shanmugam - representing the Horizon Towers buyers - attempted to have the final say. He asked Justice Choo Han Teck for '10 to 15 minutes' after Mr Rajah's speech to address some of the 'new' points raised on Tuesday. Barely had Mr Shanmugam finished his request when Senior Counsel Michael Hwang and Senior Counsel K.S. Rajah, who each represent a different group of minority owners, were on their feet to object. Although Justice Choo stayed the conflict by asking Mr Chelva Rajah to proceed with his remarks, Mr Shanmugam rose again once Mr Rajah was finished. His plea to be allowed a response was interrupted by Mr Hwang, who said it would be 'unfair' to allow Mr Shanmugam 'a second bite of the cherry when he should have said all this in the first place'. Justice Choo proposed two peace options: either Mr Shanmugam got five minutes to speak, or all the lawyers were to read his new points and respond in writing within the day. Mr Hwang opted for the second option almost at the same time that Mr Shanmugam chose the first. It all looked quite comic to the tittering public gallery but the tension in the courtroom remained high, prompting Justice Choo to close the session without allowing Mr Shanmugam's speech. In the end, only Mr Rajah had a say yesterday. He noted that Parliament will soon formally give the STB powers to ignore technical flaws - such as the three missing pages in Horizon Towers' collective sale application - showing that the STB was always intended to have these powers. | |
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[RealEdge] ST : Land authority's sales soar to nine-year high
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Oct 4, 2007 | |
Land authority's sales soar to nine-year high | |
It chalks up sales revenue of $6.3b on the back of red-hot property market; rental income rises a third | |
By Tan Hui Yee | |
THE booming property market sent sales revenue at the Singapore Land Authority (SLA) to a nine-year high of $6.3 billion. Its bumper result was still well shy of the record return achieved in the 1997 financial year, when the red-hot market pushed sales revenue to $14 billion. The SLA manages state properties and also sells them to private companies and other government agencies at market value. Its annual report out yesterday showed that it sold $3.55 billion worth of land to the private sector in the 12 months ended March 31 - about 8 per cent higher than in the previous year. Some of this land included plots in Lim Chu Kang, which the SLA specially designated for agricultural and entertainment use. A further $2.75 billion came from land sold to other government agencies, such as the 21ha plot for the Marina Bay integrated resort. This was bought by the Singapore Tourism Board for $1.2 billion and later taken over by developer Las Vegas Sands. Rental revenue grew 33 per cent to $514 million, bolstered by takings from the booming Tanglin Village food and beverage cluster and the lease of the former Pearl's Hill Primary School, which is being turned into a boutique hotel. Tanglin Village, in the Dempsey Hill area, is a thriving development of upmarket restaurants, bars and other businesses that have sprouted on the refurbished former military buildings managed by the SLA. The authority helped to make the cluster more appealing by adding entrance and building markers, as well as creating an outdoor space for events. Another state property adapted for new purposes is the former Changi Hospital, which the SLA tendered for use as a spa and resort development. The 7,900 sq m property is undergoing a $20 million makeover. The authority's recent business-friendly moves have been noticed by property consultants such as Mr Ku Swee Yong. The director of marketing and business development at Savills Singapore suggested that the SLA could try extending the leases of its rental properties so that businesses would be more inclined to sink money into refurbishing state real estate. Many of the SLA's properties are rented on three-year leases, which can be renewed up to nine years, but this may not be enough for a business to make a profit from its investment, said Mr Ku. The SLA's operating surplus grew by 35 per cent to $17.1 million. Meanwhile, another state agency, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), collected $2.7 billion from land sales in the financial year ended March 31. Although the URA sold 16 sites in that period, compared with nine the year before, sales revenue dropped by 5 per cent because last year's takings were bolstered by high-value sites such as the business and financial centre in Marina Bay and the commercial plot at Orchard Turn. The URA's operating surplus more than tripled to $14.8 million, helped by higher agency fees from selling sites and income from processing more applications for development. | |
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[RealEdge] ST : New en bloc rules kick in today
Oct 4, 2007 | |
New en bloc rules kick in today | |
Changes meant to make sale process more regulated and transparent | |
By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter | |
NEW collective sale regulations will kick in today - a few weeks earlier than many in the industry had expected. The rules, which were passed in Parliament two weeks ago, were expected to take effect this month, but a date had not been specified. The much-anticipated announcement, which came yesterday, took some en bloc players by surprise. 'We thought it was going to be later, and expected the Government to give more lead notice as well,' said Mr Jeremy Lake, executive director of investment properties at property firm CB Richard Ellis (CBRE). He added that 'initial indications were that they were likely to kick in only at the end of the month'. The changes are aimed at making the sale process more regulated and transparent. They require more conditions to be fulfilled, such as adhering to stricter requirements on setting up a sales committee and providing a five-day cooling-off period for owners to change their minds after signing the collective sale agreement. The changes will apply to all developments that, as of today, have not obtained consent from enough owners to go en bloc - 80 per cent of owners by share value, or 90 per cent for estates less than 10 years old. It will be back to the drawing board for the owners of these developments, who will have to start the collective sale process all over again and do so by the new rules. Most property firms said they each had 'two or three' en-bloc estates that will be affected by today's changes. But CBRE's Mr Lake expressed relief that there was clarity on when the rules would finally kick in. Indeed, for the last few weeks, a few projects had been suspended because no one knew when the changes would take effect, said Mr Tan Hong Boon, executive director of Credo Real Estate. 'Most lawyers were also not prepared to quote their fees for new en-bloc projects because they didn't know how much more work they would have to do under the new rules,' added Mr Tan. Some consultants scrambled last night to get the last one or two signatures. Mr Steven Ming, director of investment sales at Savills Singapore, said he had expected to have 'one or two more weeks to get the last few signatures'. 'I guess I will have to work overnight,' he joked. Other consultants, such as Jones Lang LaSalle's head of investments, Mr Lui Seng Fatt, said they have been advising would-be en-bloc sellers to follow the new rules since last month. 'Fortunately, none will have to start all over again,' he said. |
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[RealEdge] TodayOnline : Legal exchange rivets gallery
| This story was printed from TODAYonline |
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| Legal exchange rivets gallery |
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[RealEdge] TodayOnline : Industry weighs new en bloc rules
| This story was printed from TODAYonline |
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| Industry weighs new en bloc rules |
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[RealEdge] TodayOnline : SLA rides the bulls
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| SLA rides the bulls |
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[RealEdge] BT : Is the sub-prime crisis really behind us?
Business Times - 04 Oct 2007
Is the sub-prime crisis really behind us?
By ANTHONY ROWLEY
TOKYO CORRESPONDENT
THE fact that the world - its richer countries at least - has been living through a bubble economy period financed by junk (sub-prime) mortgages and funny money (carry trade) borrowing should be obvious enough to anyone observing events over the past few weeks.
But anyone who doubts it need only consider the startling fact that the number of millionaire families in the world grew by no less than 14 per cent to 9.6 million in the space of last year alone. These super-rich individuals now control one third of the estimated US$100 trillion in global financial wealth, according to the Boston Consulting Group in a new study on the subject this week. This is obviously a massive indictment of the failure to distribute wealth more evenly. But the way in which the stunning jump in the number of millionaire families came about is also something that should set alarm bells ringing.
Most of the new wealth came about through increases in the value of stocks, bonds and other financial instruments as global stock markets rose in value on average by 20 per cent, with the strongest wealth gains accruing in America where the equity cult is most entrenched. Not only the super-rich but also the merely 'better off' had a ball in 2006, as total assets held by households with US$100,000 or more leapt from US$51 trillion to near US$85 trillion.
If all this isn't evidence of a bubble, then it is hard to know just what is. But what goes up must come down, and bubbles burst as surely as they form. Or have we discovered some new form of gravity-defying wealth creation mechanism now - an infinitely inflatable bubble?
Looking at the behaviour of markets this week, it appears that the more credulous among investors are being lulled into believing that we have. In this promised land of milk and honey there is no such thing as a financial burst or bust. Descending bubbles simply float down to earth, bounce lightly off the ground and soar skywards again like hot-air balloons being given a fresh charge from the gas jet. Only in this case, the hot air is replaced by financial liquidity supplied in abundant quantity by kindly central bankers who never want to see a hard landing.
Markets are climbing again, as though the sub- prime mortgage market crisis and all its attendant horrors - in the shape of seized- up money markets, runs on banks or other financial institutions, massive mark-downs of un-tradeable financial assets and balance sheet damage all round - had suddenly become a thing of the past. Central banks have taken care of things by covering the ugly debris in a sea of fresh liquidity. Time to party again.
Amidst this new euphoria, an odd and rather worrying thing happened the other day when no fewer that three Japanese government ministers all warned at the same time that fallout from the sub-prime mortgage market debacle might not be over yet. It was not so much what they said as the fact that they said it. Such people usually see it as their job to utter bland, confidence-boosting statements, so when they do say what others of a sane turn of mind already suspect, something clearly is afoot.
It seems likely that the trio - Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga, Financial Services Minister Yoshimi Watanabe and Economics Minister Hiroko Ota - were flagging concerns that there may be more nasties yet to come for Japanese banks and other financial institutions, in the shape of write-downs from the sub-prime fiasco.
If there is one thing more risky, or plain daft, for investors to do than to pile back into equities as if there were no yesterday and no tomorrow, it is to build fresh speculative positions by shorting the yen against other currencies (the carry trades). The yen has nowhere to go but up in the medium term, while the US dollar is already on the skids and the Australian and New Zealand dollars favoured by carry trade enthusiasts will slide again against the yen.
Meanwhile, back in the never-never land of sub-prime mortgages, things are not looking good. Sales of second-hand homes dropped by a surprisingly large (to some) 6.5 per cent in August. Morgan Stanley has announced that it will cut 600 jobs in its residential mortgage division, a quarter of the workforce. Anyone who thinks that is a detail should note that two million of the seven million new US jobs created in recent years were connected with real estate.
As the housing sector turns down, along with consumption-financing equity withdrawal by US home owners, the danger of a US recession will grow and with it a slowdown in the world economy and in global capital flows. Irrational exuberance will evaporate in stock markets around the world and liquidity will drain away like so much milk and honey. The only consolation is that a lot of those new paper millionaires will find themselves joining the world or ordinary mortals once more at the new dawn of reality.
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[RealEdge] BT : The story of Goldilocks in the house of 'Bears'
Business Times - 04 Oct 2007
The story of Goldilocks in the house of 'Bears'
Will cheap credit and hedges make her lead the world markets into the house of 'Bears'?
By SATYA SAURABH KHOSLA
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Loans vs rents, salaries: Home prices in the United States today are not in any known relationship with either rents or salaries. Many homeowners complain that rents are less than half of mortgage payments. Salaries, for many, cover only short-run repayment using adjustable interest rates |
GOLDILOCKS has strayed away from home once again. Deep in the forest of the global economy, Goldilocks has found a 'safe' resting place. Where porridge and lodging is free. Just like credit (well, almost - in yen carry trades). The three bears of 'twin deficits', liability of retiring 'baby boomers' and 'excess liquidity, cheap credit' turn out to be friends after all.
Like Papa Bear's porridge, some issues (like twin deficits) are too hot to handle and, therefore, irrelevant. Some others, like Mama Bear's porridge (fate of retiring 'baby boomers'), leave Goldilocks stone cold and, therefore, can be ignored. What Goldilocks loves is the porridge of Baby Bear, full of cheap credit and uncontrolled spending. This she can lap up until she falls asleep (sadly, after breaking the very chair on which she eats).
The three bears do not return Goldilocks favour of gobbling up the porridge by doing the same to her. Instead, they call out to a fleeing Goldilocks and invite her to keep supplying with them whenever she likes. Goldilocks has been doing so for some time now.
This 'true' story of global growth is referred to as a 'Goldilocks' situation by economists today.
Goldilocks prefers the borrowed house of bears to sleep and eat her porridge. Sleeping in a borrowed house is dangerous when the bears' mood changes.
From 2001-2005, outstanding mortgage debt in the United States had risen 68 per cent to US$8.88 trillion: an unparalleled debt expansion. Borrowing to own a house is easy when interest rates are low and 'easy' cash is chasing borrowers. Repaying the same loan when interest rates are high may imply a liability much larger than what the buyer can afford. This is more so if the loan was a little beyond the means of the buyer to begin with and/or his subsequent income stream does not increase to match the new liabilities.
When rates increase from 5 per cent to 7 per cent, that implies a 40 per cent increase in the amount of interest to be paid. US Fed fund rates have risen from one per cent to 5.25 per cent in last few years.
Why should a loan be given to a buyer who can barely afford it? There are reasons. Firstly, if the lending bank can push the risk of default (by selling these loans) to Fannie Mae (ultimately, US taxpayers) or to buyers of mortgage backed securities, then the risk of default is not on the banks' books, even though it remains in the system.
Secondly, the extreme competition among lenders to capture the same 'prime' target audience of homebuyers forces them to expand to 'sub-prime' borrowers who have dubious or no credit record.
Consequently, home prices in the United States today are not in any known relationship with either rents or salaries. Many homeowners complain that rents are less than half of mortgage payments. Salaries, for many, cover only short-run repayment using adjustable interest rates. When in late 2007 the interest rates are adjusted upwards, severe pain is likely to be felt (an estimated US$1 trillion on ARMs, or adjustable rate mortgage, will be reset).
According to a typical 'exploding' ARM sub-prime loan, buyers are considered qualified for loan if the original ('teaser') monthly payment is not higher than 61 per cent of their post-tax income. The scheme works out such that in two years, without interest rate increase, the repayment become 96 per cent of purchasers' income.
The Goldilocks economy has witnessed an explosive growth in derivatives. The housing loans, in a low credit risk environment, like many other transactions were converted into derivatives. The size of these derivative transactions, used to 'hedge' risks of Goldilocks growth, is many times larger than the jungle of global growth itself. Financial innovation has replaced technological innovation as the support system to global growth today.
The outstanding volume of derivative transactions is growing annually at 54 per cent, while global nominal gross domestic product (GDP) is growing at less an 8 per cent in dollar terms. If this rate of growth continues until end 2008, the total outstanding derivates would cross US$1 trillion. Some estimate that the total volume of derivatives is over 60 times global M1, more than 12 times M2 and about eight times global GDP.
In Goldilocks' world, every dollar of GDP is being hedged eight times; or every demand deposit, 60 times. Most of these hedges are done at historically low volatilities. Crisis occurs at high volatilities. We have seen what volatility in mid-August did to equity prices the world over. Surprisingly 90 per cent of these derivate transactions are on the books of a dozen global banks.
Nobody knows the collective impact of these derivative transactions in a financial crisis. Just as nobody knows what will happen to Goldilocks when the bears mood changes. The last time this impact was tested in 1998, outstanding derivatives were less than quarter of the current volume. The New York Fed had to undertake a dramatic rescue, supported by the same major banks that hold almost all the derivative paper today.
Of course, the objective behind most of the hedging transactions would have been to mitigate unnecessary risk or seek return. However, where the growth of derivatives is so much larger than the growth of global GDP, there is a high probability of some derivative transactions that are not funded by adequate capital.
These pose a risk to the global financial system in a period where consistent and continuous volatility upsurge happens. While liquidity has generated asset bubbles, the risk of these bubbles has been 'hedged' with derivatives and financial innovation. When will a pinprick burst a bubble? This is always difficult to forecast.
Financial innovation sometimes presents weakness as strength. Initially, excessive global liquidity allows the less credit-worthy to borrow more than they earlier could and now should. The big banks add fuel to the fire of credit expansion when they don't hold this debt but sell it to others through securitisation. Sadly, each bank believes that risk 'removal' is taking place by distributing debts 'far and wide so that no single holder has significant exposure'.
In reality, risk has spread while derivatives do insure 'holders against losses', but the sale of this risk to many small buyers spreads it in a manner that almost everybody will now be impacted.
It is true that Goldilocks is a story meant only for children. Also, using parables was relevant only during the time of Jesus. While the risk of Goldilocks growth being unable to extricate itself from the 'hedges' threatens to become real, one question inevitably arises: 'Will the porridge of 'cheap credit' and the shade of 'hedges' make Goldilocks lead the world markets into the house of 'Bears'?
The author is a Dubai-based private investor trading global financial markets. He is also currently setting up an IT special economic zone in India
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[RealEdge] BT : Wise not to ignore market risks
Business Times - 04 Oct 2007
Wise not to ignore market risks
SINCE the US Federal Reserve's somewhat surprising 50-basis points interest rate cut on Sept 18, investors all over the world have piled back into stocks with much gusto. Wall Street on Monday rose to a new all-time high while most Asian markets continue to set records of their own.
The mood is once again bullish, restored by a seemingly unshakeable confidence that the Fed can be relied upon to cut rates further to keep the ball rolling. While the momentum is clearly positive however, over-eager investors have to be mindful of making the same mistake as before - ignoring risks while focusing solely on returns.
Although the Federal funds futures market is pricing in a further 25 basis points cut at the end of this month, this is by no means a certainty. September's rate lowering has seriously undermined an already-weak US dollar - which has now declined even against currencies such as the Turkish lira, Saudi rial and Canadian dollar - and over time, this cannot be good for an-already slowing economy labouring under the burden of a crashing housing market. Moreover, various Fed governors warned this week that more rate cuts can only be justified if the economy shows signs of very drastic weakness, which means that perversely, investors are buying stocks today in the hope that growth worsens significantly tomorrow - Monday's Wall St record for example, was set after release of a weak manufacturing report that showed new orders dropping for the third consecutive month. This is an anomalous state of affairs. While it might last for a while, eventually reality will prevail.
Speaking of reality, the full extent of the sub-prime mess may not have been revealed yet. US and European banks have only just started to show alarming profit weakness stemming from sub-prime losses and there is doubt over whether rate cuts are sufficient to reverse losses.
That said, markets could continue to rally in the short term. One likely explanation for the strong bounces seen over the past fortnight is that they have come from widespread programme trading - with markets as interconnected as they are today, the big money has to employ sophisticated computer-driven trading strategies in order to react quickly enough and capitalise on shifts in economic and sentiment indicators.
As such, once certain parameters are met, powerful momentum forces take over and markets move almost as one. Invariably, the targets are always the largest stocks - that is why in Singapore at least, while the Straits Times Index has very rapidly regained new ground, the broad market has lagged.
The real danger however, is that the same momentum shifts work equally effectively on the downside. Given that volatility has not subsided over the past few months - it has in fact increased - and given that the chances of a US recession are quite real, it would be wise for investors to be as cognisant of risks as they are of returns.
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